Trends in Murrieta and Menifee

Two rapidly growing cities on the Southwestern edge of Riverside County

A reader asked for a deep-dive on these two important cities, so here they are. Please remember to share the newsletter with a colleague who works in the area, and let me know if there is anything specific you would like to see. I am happy to take more requests. This newsletter thrives because of you! Thanks as always for your support. The data used for this report come from 1-year American Community Survey estimates and are subject to margins of error.

WORKFORCE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

I’ve discussed elsewhere in the newsletter that Riverside County’s population growth and net migration flows have remained positive, even as other parts of California, and even Southern California, are bleeding population (and therefore workers). It appears that Menifee has been driving this growth in Riverside County. Between 2018 and 2023 total employed workers grew 33.2% in Menifee, fastest in Riverside county, ahead of Lake Elsinore (25.6%) and Hemet (18.4%). As of 2023, Menifee had 49,455 employed workers, with another 54,035 in Murrieta.

Relatedly, both Menifee and Murrieta have seen some of the largest declines in the percentage of their workforce in service occupations, and correspondingly, some of the largest increases in the percentage employed in management positions. This is a good sign – as I’ve mentioned before, service occupations are some of the least stable and most susceptible to advancements in AI. Management occupations are higher-paying.

CONVERGENCE

On several metrics, I see a "convergence" between Menifee and Murrieta. For example, Menifee already had the highest homeownership rate in the County in 2023, at 78.2% (!). The change in Murrieta's homeownership rate between 2018 and 2023 was 8.9 percentage points (66.1 to 75), one of the largest increases among major cities in Riverside County – behind only Eastvale. This meant that homeownership in these two cities has “converged” to a similar, high, level.

Same with home values. The percentage increase in median home value in Menifee between 2018 and 2023 was 62.1%. Murrieta had a higher median home value than Menifee in 2018, but the gap in home values between the two cities has declined from $80,000 to $60,000 because of that more-rapid increase in Menifee.

Murrieta has also seen an increase in average commute times that are now more in line with Menifee’s.

ECONOMIC HEALTH

The economic changes described above have come with little “growing pains”. Both Menifee and Murrieta saw very little changes in overcrowding rates. In both cities, more people are working in their city of residence. The percent of the population without health insurance has dropped in both cities, although there has been an increase in the percent of the population on nutritional assistance – but even here, the increases are in line with County-wide trends.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

See my real estate dashboard for the Inland Empire here. This is current through January 2025. You can view zip code-level data for both Menifee and Murrieta there.

The regional housing market has suffered since 2022 from higher interest rates, and it’s no different in these two cities. Both Menifee and Murrieta have suffered, but there are some brighter spots. Zip 92562, western Murrieta on the northern border with parts of Temecula, has seen greater median listing price growth than normal. Further up in Menifee, there has been less growth: two smaller zips in Menifee have seen year-over-year median listing price decreases (92586, 92587).

Median days on market have increased in all zips over the past 6 months (as expected), but are even up year-over-year in all these areas. So there is still substantial weakness in the housing market.

SUMMARY

Contact me if you’re interested in a more in-depth report or visualizations or to speak about these issues. Overall, both Menifee and Murrieta have benefited greatly from Riverside County’s growth, with some of the highest increases in workforce indicators in the County. The real estate market has suffered, but this is no different than elsewhere, and there do remain some “hot spots” when it comes to price growth.