Track another 'real time' regional economic indicator
I drew your attention a few weeks ago to a graph that tracks consumer spending in real time in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. Current, cutting-edge data are vital to tracking the recovery. I just checked back in on those numbers and I am happy to report that consumer spending continues to increase in the region at a rapid pace. For example, just in the last week of April and the first week of May, consumer spending surged again in San Bernardino and Riverside County (data from Opportunity Insights and Affinity). Spending in San Bernardino and Riverside is up 14.3% and 11.8% since January 2020, which is impressive enough simply on a year-over-year basis.
This is exciting, because when businesses see higher spending, that encourages them to hire and invest. It could very well be that this increase in consumer spending leads to strong(er) labor market statistics throughout the summer. To keep track of these developments, keep reading my newsletter and share it with your colleagues or friends who work in the region.
Another great indicator is initial unemployment insurance claims. These numbers are reported weekly out of the state’s workforce development department, tallying the number of new claims for unemployment insurance made over the previous week. You’ll often see the national version of these numbers reported in the news, since they come out every Thursday and are therefore one of the most “real-time” administrative data that we have.
Initial UI claims jumped quickly in the 3rd and 4th weeks of March 2020 and increased again in late-August 2020 and January 2021. They have gradually trended down since then. The four-week averages for the most recent data are 9,151.5 (San Bernardino) and 10,469 (Riverside), down from 9,897.25 and 11,523 for the previous week’s four-week average. The data exclude claims based on the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. While these numbers are still much higher than their pre-pandemic values, which averaged anywhere from two to three thousand, a gradual downward trend is a sign of progress.
Data underlying this article can be found here.