Region's population growth better than statewide numbers

Event!!!: Next Wednesday May 26 at 12 noon, I will be presenting an economic assessment and outlook for the region’s small business community for the Building Wealth Initiative. Come join for your lunch hour or stay through for the Q&A until 1:30pm. Registration is $5 and supports community service projects. Find out more about the event here.

A few weeks ago, it was reported that California had negative annual population growth between 2020 and 2021. The Inland Empire’s numbers are better, but not by much.

The region did not lose population, but it also did not gain a lot. Population growth in Riverside County was +0.6% between 2020 and 2021. Large cities in Riverside County such as Corona and Moreno Valley grew by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. The City of Riverside, on the other hand, lost 1.4%. San Bernardino County’s growth was a flat 0%. Fontana and Ontario were the only bigger cities with growth in San Bernardino county (1.1%, 0.7%). The City of San Bernardino lost 0.8%.

A long-running narrative is that California “exports” its low- and middle-income workforce and attracts college-educated and advanced-degree migrants. There was a well-done report from Beacon Economics on this a few years ago. The Inland Empire is different; it brings a balance of both low- and high-income workers. In 2019, the region gained about 17,000 workers aged 25 or older with a high school degree or less from other states, and gained about 9,000 college or advanced-degree workers from out of state. Of course, the region also attracts workers from surrounding counties, especially L.A. and Orange County. The statistics below come from the 2019 American Community Survey. We will have the 2020 data from this survey later this year.

The overwhelming majority of workers leaving the IE go to Arizona, but Texas, Nevada, and Colorado are close behind. Washington and Oregon are also popular. The destinations of Inland Empire out-migrants are similar to the popular sites for all California out-migrants.

The region’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Its workforce remains balanced compared to dynamics happening in California as a whole.

Replication files (in Stata) available here.