Regional unemployment claims reflect the rest of the state
Other parts of the country are not doing well, but the outlook remains positive in California
Update since Friday: No new indicators or news, although yesterday it was reported (by Kevin Smith, article in SB Sun) that the Teamsters have helped San Bernardino County Housing Authority workers unionize and bargain for their first contract. Citing (in part) workplace safety concerns, the workers have secured a host of protections, as well as a 10% raise. The fight for a contract started back in late-2020.
Last week, Reuters reported that the number of people filing for new unemployment insurance claims had increased about 3.8%, to an 8-month high. This is the second week in a row that new claims have risen. These are nationally, seasonally adjusted statistics.
While by no means a sign of a recession, commentators did remark that these are signs of a “loosening” labor market. Further remarks are made about layoffs “in the interest-rate sensitive housing and manufacturing industries”, and significant regional variation, with some states seeing increases in claims and others seeing decreases. California, for example, saw a sharp decline in new claims.
The Inland Empire is no different from the rest of California – see the graph below.
While the IE numbers are not seasonally adjusted, we take the 4-week average to help smooth out the jumps. By this metric, new claims for the latest week in San Bernardino County are down 6.2%, from 2,849 (4-week average) to 2,683 (4-week average) for the week ending July 15. Riverside County looks similar.
New unemployment insurance claims are important to watch because the data come out so quickly, acting as a thermometer for the economy (or at least the labor market). As for now, things out there continue to look healthy.