Regional consumption and employment remain positive through uncertain times

Update since last Tuesday: Things have been quiet recently! The big national news was student debt relief, which will affect tens of millions of people, including many students and former students at my University (California State University San Bernardino). See here for a thread on some unexpected ways debt relief can impact the labor market.

Great news! We have updated county-level information from Opportunity Insights, which sources data from private companies to track consumer spending and other economic indicators. The latest update covers through the week ending August 14 and shows that consumer spending has increased slightly in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties from the start of the summer. See the chart below, which plots the underlying data as well as a 7-day/1-week moving average for San Bernardino County.

The chart tracks spending relative to January 2020, but movement in the line can still reveal upward or downward trends. Certainly, if the line were declining or trending downward, this would be a sign of concern about future economic activity. Indeed, this seems to be the case for earlier this summer, say May through early-June, when there was a clear decline in the 7-day moving average. Since that time however, spending has increased.

New claims for unemployment insurance have also remained remarkably low. The latest data, which cover the week ending August 20, show virtually no change in the 4-week moving average of new claims in San Bernardino County. See the chart below.

These are all good signs of current economic conditions, pointing to some strength even as other parts of the economy, such as real estate, show weakness.