March inflation statistics for the Inland Empire
The short takeaway:
Inland Empire inflation cooled in March compared to January 2025, but just slightly. Inflation is still elevated in key categories like Apparel, Food Away from Home (restaurants), and to a lesser extent, Shelter (includes rent and other housing costs). Of course, the egg crisis has also affected grocery prices more broadly. Expectations of inflation are increasing nationally and will probably affect the I.E. as well.
Trends in I.E. inflation
Inflation cooled slightly in March nationally, and the same can be said for the Inland Empire. The 2.5% year-over-year price change in the all-items index in March was lower than the 2.9% year-over-year price change in January (the I.E. has a bimonthly price index series). Inflation continues to trend downward from its highs in early-2022. See the chart below, which compares all-items inflation to inflation in "Shelter", which refers to rent and other housing costs. Inflation in that category has also come down considerably from its highs in late-2023, early-2024.
That said, certain categories of the region's inflation remain elevated. Food prices increased 3.7% and Apparel prices increased 6.4%. Housing prices increased 3.3%. Transportation prices increased only 1.4%.
Food away from home - restaurant prices - continue to increase at a fast rate (5.3%). Costs and demand are keeping restaurant price inflation elevated consistently for over 2 years now. We have seen a slight downward trend recently (since mid-2024), but it has been uneven. See the chart below, which compares inflation in this category to the all-items rate.
Outlook
It’s important to note that Americans overall are expecting inflation to heat up over the remainder of the year, for a variety of reasons. Even if business were not planning on raising prices, higher inflation expectations can lead to more inflation. I don’t see any reason why things would be different in the Inland Empire. See the chart below, which comes from the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers - a widely-cited resource on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
