Latest job numbers indicate local economy still not in recession
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The most current data we have for assessing the region’s labor market is new Unemployment Insurance claims, which count the number of new applications for unemployment insurance at the county level. These data show some weakness or lateral movement (i.e., neither growth nor contraction), but nothing that would make me think we’re on the verge of a recession.
As of May 31, the counts were 2,756 and 3,208 in San Bernardino and Riverside County respectively. The 4-week average in both counties was up from the previous average 4-week window, but by 1.1% and 2.8% - not a major increase. Compared to a year ago, the numbers are up 10-12%. See the chart below for plots of each county.
As you can see from the charts, there is a strong seasonal component to UI claims, and while we do see increases in the middle of the year, the magnitude of these - especially compared to previous years - is low and not a sign for concern.
Statewide, new UI claims by age group are up slightly for all age groups, with the biggest year-over-year increase percentage-wise among the 35-44 age group (7.1%), which is the group with the second-highest UI claims overall. But in general, the increases are not major.
For UI claims by educational attainment, the only group that saw a decline in applications year-over-year was workers with less than a high school degree. But the other differences are minor – percentage wise, the largest increase was among workers with a Master’s or PhD (18.7%).
Job growth was 0.2% in April, which isn’t strong, but also doesn’t indicate weakness yet. Education and health services, as well as local government, continue to drive job growth in the region with year-over-year jobs growth of 5.5% and 3.2% respectively.