Economic Development in the High Desert "Core"
Uneven trajectories across Hesperia, Victorville, and Apple Valley
Rapid Demographic Change…
Let's talk about the High Desert. This region in San Bernardino County has become a population magnet as a result of cheap housing - median house values in 2023 were close to, or under, $400K in the three biggest cities of Hesperia, Victorville, and Apple Valley. Victorville has also been building new homes at a rapid rate - as of 2023, approximately 4.4% of its housing stock had been built since 2020 (!); that’s twice the County average of 2.2% and much lower than Hesperia (0.8%) and Apple Valley (0.3%).
While most High Desert cities have shared in the demographic growth, there are some differences in workforce development. Focusing on the three biggest cities, Victorville's workforce sticks out in several ways.
…Uneven Workforce Change
Victorville is the highest-population (and fastest growing) city in the High Desert, but it has also seen the most radical changes in its workforce, marked by a major increase in the share of its workforce in logistics: in 2018, just 8.1% of Victorville's workforce was in this sector, but in 2023, that was 16.9%. Construction jobs also gained in importance, from 4.7% to 9.0%. On the other hand, workforce shares in higher-paying finance and insurance, professional, scientific, and management sectors, and education and health services, have all declined. See the table below (Apple Valley not shown due to lack of space but similar to Hesperia; contact me for more detailed reports/tables).
These trends contrast sharply with Hesperia and Apple Valley, which have followed more or less normal development patterns: higher shares of its workforce in higher-paying industries like finance and insurance (Apple Valley) and health and social services (Hesperia), more sales/office and management occupations, and lower percentages of its workforce in logistics. Victorville, on the other hand, has seen a decline in the percentage of its workforce in management occupations and a marked increase in material-moving occupations (i.e., floor-based logistics occupations). These all refer to trends between 2018 and 2023.
One commonality among all three cities is the decline in manufacturing jobs/workers. This was most notable in Victorville and may help explain the coincident rise in logistics there.
Median income growth in all three cities has been impressive, but homeownership rates are much lower in Victorville (lower than the County average, in fact), and homeownership rate growth between 2018 and 2023 has been slower (+7.8% in Apple Valley, +5.6% Hesperia, +2.1% Victorville; +2.3% SB County overall).
In short, while Victorville appears to be a jobs center and has practically unleashed the cranes in recent years, much of its workforce has grown into lower-paying jobs, compared to surrounding areas. It should consider improving amenities to make it a more attractive destination for workers as they look to settle down. The High Desert has amazing potential and the fruits of growth should be shared evenly among its communities.
In the coming weeks I'll look at business/job development and the residential real estate market in this dynamic region.
What do you know or would like to know about economic development in the High Desert?