County-level Real GDP statistics!
Sort of like econ data-Christmas
Update: I wrote a report! If you found the discussion of migration patterns in California interesting, a more in-depth look at the statistics behind my findings can be found below. Please share this post with one colleague you know who works or lives in the area. Or, share it with a family member such as a father/mother, grandparent, or sibling:
Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released data on Real GDP growth by county for 2021. The BEA always releases these data at the end of each calendar year - it’s sort of like an econ data version of Christmas. Given that we’re heading into 2023, it might seem like a delay in reporting, but very detailed data usually take a while to assemble and report. I’m certainly not complaining! It’s great to have such detailed information.
Real GDP measures the total output an economy produces. Output produced can be broken down into services (like education, finance, restaurants) and goods (like agriculture, construction, and manufacturing). When an economy produces more services and goods, Real GDP goes up. If Real GDP growth is negative, that means the economy shrank – it produces fewer services and goods now than it did in the past.
The BEA release reported that San Bernardino County Real GDP grew at a 5.5% rate in 2021. Riverside County grew by 6.8%. These were the 19th- and 11th- fastest growing counties in California. The other major Southern California counties did better than us: Los Angeles 7.9% (rank 7 in the state), Orange 7.0% (rank 9), and San Diego 7.8% (rank 8).
We can also look at the sources of growth in San Bernardino and Riverside County. In San Bernardino in 2021, Trade, Transportation, and Warehousing contributed over 40% of the county’s Real GDP growth. Another 20% or so was contributed by Professional and Business Services. Finally, of the major industries, Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodation, and Food Services contributed about 15% (mostly from the latter two industries).
See the chart below for a comparison between San Bernardino and Riverside County. Over the last 10 years, Riverside County Real GDP growth has slightly out-performed San Bernardino. This growth matches population and labor force trends, which have consistently leaned toward Riverside. Note, however, that Riverside took a bigger hit in 2020 during the pandemic.
In Riverside, growth was more balanced. Trade, Transportation, and Warehousing contributed only about 22% to that county’s Real GDP, while the FIRE industries (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) contributed 15% and Professional and Business Services another 15%.
Southern California also had some of the lowest Real GDP growth recordings: the economies of both Kern (-1.1%, rank 52) and Imperial (-0.4%, rank 47) shrank in 2021, the former mainly due to mining but also agriculture, and the latter entirely due to agriculture.
If you are interested in the breakdown of these statistics by industry, let me know and I can help dig up whatever you might be looking for. Have a great week!